UPD October 29th, 2020: our crystal ball is pretty accurate! WoW Shadowlands does indeed go live November 23 at 3 a.m. PST / November 24 at 12:00 CET, according to this tweet.
UPD October 28th, 2020: the recent announcement of the delay of Cyberpunk 2077 — arguably the most anticipated game of 2020 had put the WoW dev team in a tight spot. This, and the fact that the release had been confirmed to happen this year doesn’t leave much room to maneuver and we are almost positive that the release will be announced within the next few days and will happen between November 18th and November 25th.
With a delaying announcement from Blizzard, hitting us sharply on October 1st, we found out that Shadowlands isn’t coming October 27nd. Sad news, and even more, unpleasant anticipation which arose due to the fact that we don’t know when we can expect Shadowlands to air.
However, we for sure know when it isn’t coming, so that leaves us the opportunity to try hard to speculate when we can actually expect it. In that light, let’s try and figure it out.
What’s more, don’t think for a minute that Blizzard wanted this – since the delay of Shadowlands came as a tough decision to make. Additionally, it was a huge financial shock for Blizzard and they definitely aren’t happy about this delay they needed to make.
Besides, enough is said in their refund policy emails they’ve been sending to those who pre-ordered the expansion – expressing their sorrow and offering a refund.
Furthermore, this wait won’t be short, since, logically, a whole lot of fuss wouldn’t arise around the delay. Therefore, you guys are probably wondering how long will it be? Well – let’s figure it out together and take into consideration some facts, backed with Blizzard’s history of pre-patched dates and the upcoming holidays
The history of Pre-Patches
Since patch 13 came out on October 13th, let’s take that date as our speculative toehold to find out the WoW Shadowlands release date. Of course, we are basing our analysis on the date for the US servers. Moreover, let’s further look at when we can expect the final release date if we would follow the logic of the previous expansion’s pre-patch timings.
Earlier expansions:
- The Burning Crusade – pre-patch duration was 42 days
- Wrath of the Lich King – pre-patch duration was 30 days
- Cataclysm – pre-patch duration was 56 days
- Mists of Pandaria – pre-patch duration was 28 days
- Warlords of Draenor – pre-patch duration was 30 days
- Legion – pre-patch duration was 42 days
- Battle for Azeroth – pre-patch duration was 28 days
Now, it is evident that Shadowland’s pre-patch will last at least 2 weeks because of the related events in it. However, it must take more than this, because if it would last 2 weeks then the final release would come exactly on a delayed date. Specifically, then you must wonder how long the release will be prolonged and will that period coincide with some of the above-mentioned pre-patch lengths.
Besides, there’s always something more than it meets the eye, so let’s try to figure out other factors involved concerning wow Shadowlands release date.
The upcoming Holidays
Now, to release the expansion during Holiday time is a logical thing, since most people have free time and space to eagerly try it out. Particularly, players are off work and they can focus their efforts to hit the cap 60 swiftly.
However, we must think of all those diligent Blizzard employees and keep in mind that they also need and will have a time off. Furthermore, all of them put a lot of effort and focus to actually allow making the expansion start possible.
Therefore, making hotfixes, polishing the expansion, and many other things are primary objectives so the launch during holidays is unfortunately very unlikely. Even more, let’s dig some deeper and see other conflicting dates that might tell us what we can expect.
PvP Season 1, M+ and the Raid events
Here’s the fun thing – according to the official Season 1 Shadowlands release timeline, M+/PvP S1 and the raid should open two weeks after Shadowlands airs. Logically, Blizzard needs to keep an eye on avoiding potential conflicts between Shadowland’s release and dates around the holidays.
The Mythic Race
Going further, we all know that the race is becoming more and more popular, placing itself among major imprints of WoW each year. Moreover, the amount of popularity and views this race gets, especially on Twitch, is enormous, not to mention the rest of the media. Particularly, everything related to race, like events, for example, is ingrained deeply into WoW’s core thus becoming an indispensable part of the game’s experience.
In that light, the raid race can help us uncover the mystery of the WoW Shadowlands release date. Therefore, one week after Season 1 begins, the race will lunch and will probably last around 2 weeks, give or take. Plus, we all remember its duration can be longer or shorter than the mentioned time-frame, as it was with Castle Nathria for example.
Over and above that, it’s also worthy to mention Blizzard’s history of delaying raids so they avoid interfering with holidays. So, Battle of Dazar’alor — rings a bell, anyone? Nonetheless, the Battle of Dazar’alor is important for our analysis, as there was a lot of resemblance regarding the current situation with Shadowlands. At that time, the patch should’ve arrived on December 11th, 2018 with the raid being primarily scheduled for December 25th. Still, the raid was eventually moved to air on January 22nd, 2019.
Sounds familiar?!
Narrowing the dates
For now, we’ve analyzed some of the most important factors to help us determine the actual WoW Shadowlands release date. However, let’s go a step further and try to place those already mentioned time frames around particular dates that make the most sense. Finally, the choice narrows down to only a few dates worth considering, specifically November 10th, November 24th, and December 8th – stemming from pre-patch lengths.
The first date, November 10th is most unlikely of all, because of two things:
1) Blizzard wouldn’t delay Shadowlands and create all the fuss, only to get so little extra time to enhance the expansion
2) Taking into consideration earlier pre-patch durations we already mentioned, it would not make a lot of sense coupled with other factors. Don’t worry, we’ll explain precisely. A MoP/BfA duration, along with WoD/Legion because of the reset date, would place the date on November 10th, which only avoids holidays for the race and launch. However, under those circumstances, the raid and Season 1 start would interfere pretty much with Thanksgiving.
We would get the second date, November 24th, by putting a Burning Crusade pre-patch duration (42 days) in perspective. That way, the release would air only 2 days before Thanksgiving and would automatically schedule Season 1 start on December 8th and RWF on December 15th. Still, it would place the expected second week of the race right in the holiday timeframe. Specifically, the first tier will probably be short, and with Thanksgiving in the picture, it most likely cancels out our second date.
Finally, the third date, December 8th is most likely, and we get it by relying on Cataclysm pre-patch that lasted for full 56 days. Nevertheless, Season 1 would mark December 22nd as a start date and the race would start slightly before New Year’s Eve. Logically, the raid, Season 1, and the race would evidently be adjourned for some date in January, like the Battle of Dazar’alor was.
Anyhow, of all the three dates, the last is most probably because of a myriad of reasons. Not only that it would supply Blizzard a lot of time to polish Shadowlands, but it would also give it space for plenty of feedback. To top it off, that feedback would come from pre-patch players and beta-testers, who could eventually include more and more players to the beta. Simply said, Blizzard would avoid holidays that way and everyone would be somewhat satisfied.
And as a fourth option, we didn’t mention, we’ll take a look at December 1st. Straight on point, with this date which follows similar logic from previous, Blizzard would need to postpone the race only. Additionally, the race would land on December 22nd and would definitely hook along the winter holidays.
Let’s definitely pick the date
To give you the simplest conclusion possible, we will be short and precise. Since the last two dates, December 1st and December 8th, meet most/all of the factors we’ve covered, we would definitely go for December 8th. It is the latest date, and it buys Blizzard enough time to refurbish the expansion and not to ultimately disappoint the players.
However, this might be too much to wait, so we will offer two dates as final options:
- First pick – December 8th
- Second pick – November 24th